Carbon Tax

by Ray Rivers

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Rivers: Let’s have an Election on the Carbon Tax

By Ray Rivers

March 22nd, 2024

BURLINGTON, ON

Despite all the noise from the official opposition on Parliament Hill, the truth is that carbon pricing contributes only a tiny fraction to the cost of inflation.   Analysis shows that even when inflation peaked above eight per cent last year, carbon pricing might have accounted for a tiny one-54th of it.

Carbon pricing does raise the cost of fossil fuels – that part is true.   But even the latest round of scheduled progressive increases will have little impact on Canada’s declining inflation rate.  And the carbon tax rebates are the great equalizer for Canadians facing higher food and other costs.

80% of Canadians are better off with the tax and the rebate than if the tax were axed, as Canada’s Conservatives would do were they to win the next election.   In fact axing the tax would do almost nothing to lower inflation but everything to make the average Canadian worse off.

Alberta premier Smith and Saskatchewan premier Moe also support ‘axing the tax’ despite the fact that residents of those provinces receive the greatest annual carbon rebates ($1800 and $1500) while still paying some of the lowest energy prices in the country.  Clearly partisanship and ideology trump economics in those prairie provinces.

Mr. Poilievre believes he’s riding a winner with his ‘axe the tax’ campaign, a catchy though well-worn and somewhat dated slogan.  His misrepresentations have started the Liberals calling him out as the liar he becomes when he speaks to the issue.  But then again, his political party does not even recognize the reality of climate change, so he may just be carrying their water.

Affordability is the watch word these days.  Initially Poilievre hung his hat on the mostly false claim that the federal deficit was the major cause of inflation  But now he has resorted to another falsehood and set his gun sights on carbon pricing.  He introduced a non-confidence motion in Parliament this past week, which could have forced an early election.  But every other political party stood with the Trudeau crowd to defend carbon pricing.

Yet it is unfortunate that we are not having an election over how to mitigate Canada’s embarrassingly high carbon footprint.   The politicians from every party except the one leading in the public opinion polls understand that this is the most cost-effective way to deal with one of the greatest existential threats to our planet.   They get it.

As we remember Brian Mulroney this week, we should also consider how he tried to resolve fractious public policy issues.  The Charlestown referendum ultimately settled the matter of constitutional change once and for all, despite Mulroney losing.  Canadians were informed on the issue and they told the PM that they preferred the status quo and a stronger federal government.

The 1988 election was largely about free trade with the US and Mulroney won that debate.  There would be winners and losers but, despite the pain of adjusting to change, an informed Canadian public elected the party which supported freer trade with the Americans.

Trudeau may claim that he won the last two elections over the issue of his carbon tax – it was his signature policy after all.  But not everyone agrees, including Mr. Poilievre and a significant number of provincial leaders.  The sentiment among pundits is that Trudeau has failed to fully inform, sell and convince the public on the merits of carbon pricing.  Even the Globe and Mail, long a strong supporter of carbon pricing, is getting ready to write off this entire experience as a failure.

So, what better way to bring the public up to speed than to put the choice directly in their hands.  Mr. Trudeau should make the next election about climate change, or conduct a referendum to shut up the critics.  Trudeau’s is currently light years behind in the polls.  If that trend continues and the Tories win the next election climate policy including carbon pricing will all be history.

Does the PM’s miserable poll numbers mean that Canadians also disapprove of carbon pricing?  Or does the Tory party’s staggering lead in public opinion polls say more about a fickle and bored public wanting to change the channel, as they did a few years ago in Ontario?  That was a move which ended Ontario’s role as one of three provinces leading the fight against climate change.

Successful politicians are often those who aren’t afraid to show courage – Mulroney was one of those.  Unfortunately the new leader of the provincial Liberals is playing footsie on this issue, afraid to take a stand in case she says the wrong thing before the dust has settled.  She is currently the leader of a third party and sitting on the fence will rightly ensure that she stays exactly where she is.

To end this on-going axe the tax partisan campaign Trudeau needs to answer the challenge and call the bluff.   He needs to borrow a page from Mr. Mulroney’s book and make the next election a ‘climate change election’, if not now, certainly in 2025.

Following your own convictions and doing what you believe to be the right thing is not enough in a democracy.  You need to have the public behind you. Trudeau needs to call Poilievre’s bluff and let an informed public finally decide on whether we need to continue with carbon pricing and the ultimate phase-out of fossil fuels in this country.

Trudeau needs to put an end to the prattling half-truths and outright lies pouring from the mouths of the opposition leader and his cabal of climate denying premiers once and for all.  He needs to put the decision to fight for our future directly into the hands of an informed voting public.

Ray Rivers, a Gazette Contributing Editor, writes regularly applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking.  Rivers was once a candidate for provincial office in Burlington.  He was the founder of the Burlington citizen committee on sustainability at a time when climate warming was a hotly debated subject.   Ray has a post graduate degree in economics that he earned at the University of Ottawa.  Tweet @rayzrivers